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What the markets expect
McClain, 19+ pts 96.3%
Next is McClain, 22+ pts at 86%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
McClain, 19+ pts96.3%Not listed96.3%9.1¢ bid, 96.3¢ askpolled, 3 h ago96.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)McClain, 19+ pts96.3%Kalshi 96.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
McClain, 19+ pts
96.3%
Not listed
96.3%
9.1¢ bid, 96.3¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
96.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
McClain, 19+ pts
96.3%
Kalshi 96.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McClain, 19+ pts
- Last price
- 96.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 96.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $103
McClain, 22+ pts86%Not listed86%8¢ bid, 99.6¢ askpolled, 3 h ago99.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $100 (1.00x)McClain, 22+ pts86%Kalshi 86%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
McClain, 22+ pts
86%
Not listed
86%
8¢ bid, 99.6¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
99.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
McClain, 22+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McClain, 22+ pts
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
McClain, 25+ pts57%Not listed57%No order bookpolled, 3 h agoNo askMcClain, 25+ pts57%Kalshi 57%polled, 3 h ago
McClain, 25+ pts
57%
Not listed
57%
No order book
polled, 3 h ago
No ask
McClain, 25+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- McClain, 25+ pts
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $91
McClain, 28+ pts50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 3 h agoNo askMcClain, 28+ pts50%Kalshi 50%polled, 3 h ago
McClain, 28+ pts
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 3 h ago
No ask
McClain, 28+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 3 h ago
McClain, 31+ pts50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 3 h agoNo askMcClain, 31+ pts50%Kalshi 50%polled, 3 h ago
McClain, 31+ pts
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 3 h ago
No ask
McClain, 31+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 3 h ago
Republican 25-30%48.5%48.5%3¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed94¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Republican 25-30%48.5%Polymarket 48.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Republican 25-30%
48.5%
48.5%
3¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
94¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Republican 25-30%
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 25-30%
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $6K
Republican 20-25%45.5%45.5%2¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed89¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Republican 20-25%45.5%Polymarket 45.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Republican 20-25%
45.5%
45.5%
2¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
89¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Republican 20-25%
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 20-25%
- Last price
- 45.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $6K
Republican 15-20%44.3%44.3%1.6¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed87¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Republican 15-20%44.3%Polymarket 44.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Republican 15-20%
44.3%
44.3%
1.6¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
87¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Republican 15-20%
44.3%
Polymarket 44.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 15-20%
- Last price
- 44.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $2K
McClain, 34+ pts34%Not listed34%No order bookpolled, 3 h agoNo askMcClain, 34+ pts34%Kalshi 34%polled, 3 h ago
McClain, 34+ pts
34%
Not listed
34%
No order book
polled, 3 h ago
No ask
McClain, 34+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- McClain, 34+ pts
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $200
McClain, 37+ pts18%Not listed18%No order bookpolled, 3 h agoNo askMcClain, 37+ pts18%Kalshi 18%polled, 3 h ago
McClain, 37+ pts
18%
Not listed
18%
No order book
polled, 3 h ago
No ask
McClain, 37+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- McClain, 37+ pts
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $200
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Republican 0-5%18%18%1¢ bid, 34.9¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed34.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $287 (2.87x)Republican 0-5%18%Polymarket 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 34.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $287 (2.87x)
Republican 0-5%
18%
18%
1¢ bid, 34.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
34.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $287 (2.87x)
Republican 0-5%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 34.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $287 (2.87x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 0-5%
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 34.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $287 (2.87x)
- Volume
- $1K
McClain, 40+ pts15%Not listed15%No order bookpolled, 3 h agoNo askMcClain, 40+ pts15%Kalshi 15%polled, 3 h ago
McClain, 40+ pts
15%
Not listed
15%
No order book
polled, 3 h ago
No ask
McClain, 40+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- McClain, 40+ pts
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $100
Republican 30-35%9.5%9.5%1¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Republican 30-35%9.5%Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Republican 30-35%
9.5%
9.5%
1¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Republican 30-35%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 30-35%
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $4K
McClain, 43+ pts8%Not listed8%— bid, 27¢ askpolled, 3 h ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)McClain, 43+ pts8%Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
McClain, 43+ pts
8%
Not listed
8%
— bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
McClain, 43+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McClain, 43+ pts
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $311
Republican 45%+4.9%4.9%0.2¢ bid, 9.6¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed9.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)Republican 45%+4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Republican 45%+
4.9%
4.9%
0.2¢ bid, 9.6¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
9.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Republican 45%+
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 45%+
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,042 (10.4x)
- Volume
- $1K
Republican 35-40%4.5%4.5%0.2¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed8.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)Republican 35-40%4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Republican 35-40%
4.5%
4.5%
0.2¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
8.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Republican 35-40%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 35-40%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
Republican 5-15%1%1%0.2¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Republican 5-15%1%Polymarket 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Republican 5-15%
1%
1%
0.2¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Republican 5-15%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 5-15%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat Wins0.9%0.9%0.1¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed1.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)Democrat Wins0.9%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Democrat Wins
0.9%
0.9%
0.1¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
1.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Democrat Wins
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat Wins
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican 40-45%0.8%0.8%0.1¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)Republican 40-45%0.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Republican 40-45%
0.8%
0.8%
0.1¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Republican 40-45%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 40-45%
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Department of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- McClain, 19+ pts
- McClain, 22+ pts
- McClain, 25+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list McClain, 19+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 9th District margin of victory". McClain, 19+ pts leads at 96.3%. Next is McClain, 22+ pts at 86%. $29K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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