This market has closed
Trading ended on Oct 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
- Polymarket
No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:

- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Micron (MU) Up or Down on October 21?". $9K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 21, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on October 21, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on October 21, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More other markets
See all other markets- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?December 318.5%$76.5M traded
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Yes1.4%$66.6M traded
- Which party will win the U.S. House?Democratic Party91.4%$66.1M traded
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?Nithya Raman51%$42.5M traded
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?October 2492.5%$38.5M traded
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Before Jan 20, 202923%$36.8M traded
