The Prediction Markets

Miles Morales live-action film actor?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

No actor chosen by end of 2027 82.5%

Next is Caleb McLaughlin at 14.4%. The venues differ most on Caleb McLaughlin (Polymarket 3.6%, Kalshi 18%), a 14-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No actor chosen by end of 2027
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
No actor chosen by end of 2027
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caleb McLaughlinArb
14.4%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb McLaughlin
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb McLaughlin
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Alex R. Hibbert
12.5%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex R. Hibbert
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex R. Hibbert
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 20¢.

Dallas Dupree Young
9.9%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 13.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $752 (7.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas Dupree Young
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13.3¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$752 (7.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas Dupree Young
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13.3¢.

Tyler James Williams
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler James Williams
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
Miles BrownArb
6.9%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Brown
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Brown
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$839
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 280 bps before fees.

Justice Smith
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justice Smith
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Myles TruittArb
2.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Myles Truitt
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Myles Truitt
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Caleb McLaughlin on Polymarket at 6¢, sell on Kalshi at 17¢ (1100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 30, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Marvel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 30, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No actor chosen by end of 2027
  • Caleb McLaughlin
  • Alex R. Hibbert

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No actor chosen by end of 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Miles Morales live-action film actor?". No actor chosen by end of 2027 leads at 82.5%. Next is Caleb McLaughlin at 14.4%. $25K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will play Miles Morales in a live-action feature film by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Actors announced to play the character in animated films or TV series will not qualify. Only live-action feature film castings will qualify. If more than one actor is announced to portray Miles Morales in the same film, only the actor cast in the principal role of the character will qualify. Actors cast to portray a younger, older, alternate, or variant version of the character, and actors serving as body doubles, stunt doubles, or voice doubles, will not qualify. If no actor is announced as the live-action Miles Morales within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No actor chosen by end of 2027". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Sony Pictures, Marvel, their parent companies, or another authorized representative of the Spider-Man franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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