The Prediction Markets

Milwaukee vs Minnesota: Hits

Closed
May 20, 2026
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 20, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 160 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
William Contreras: 1+
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Contreras: 1+
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$808
Trade this on Kalshi
Brice Turang: 1+
67.5%
Kalshi 67.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brice Turang: 1+
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson Chourio: 1+
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Chourio: 1+
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Christian Yelich: 1+
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Yelich: 1+
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sal Frelick: 1+
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sal Frelick: 1+
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Kalshi
Brooks Lee: 1+
63.5%
Kalshi 63.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brooks Lee: 1+
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Jeffers: 1+
63.5%
Kalshi 63.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Jeffers: 1+
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Martin: 1+
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Martin: 1+
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Keaschall: 1+
61.5%
Kalshi 61.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Keaschall: 1+
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jake Bauers: 1+
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Bauers: 1+
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 47 more outcomes
Kody Clemens: 1+
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kody Clemens: 1+
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Royce Lewis: 1+
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Royce Lewis: 1+
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Victor Caratini: 1+
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Victor Caratini: 1+
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joey Ortiz: 1+
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Ortiz: 1+
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$899
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Mitchell: 1+
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Mitchell: 1+
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
David Hamilton: 1+
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Hamilton: 1+
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Kreidler: 1+
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Kreidler: 1+
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
James Outman: 1+
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Outman: 1+
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson Chourio: 2+
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Chourio: 2+
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
William Contreras: 2+
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Contreras: 2+
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Brice Turang: 2+
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brice Turang: 2+
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Martin: 2+
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Martin: 2+
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Brooks Lee: 2+
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brooks Lee: 2+
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Christian Yelich: 2+
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Yelich: 2+
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Jeffers: 2+
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Jeffers: 2+
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sal Frelick: 2+
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sal Frelick: 2+
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Royce Lewis: 2+
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Royce Lewis: 2+
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Victor Caratini: 2+
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Victor Caratini: 2+
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Keaschall: 2+
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Keaschall: 2+
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kody Clemens: 2+
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kody Clemens: 2+
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Jake Bauers: 2+
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Bauers: 2+
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Joey Ortiz: 2+
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Ortiz: 2+
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Mitchell: 2+
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Mitchell: 2+
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Kalshi
David Hamilton: 2+
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Hamilton: 2+
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Kreidler: 2+
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Kreidler: 2+
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
James Outman: 2+
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Outman: 2+
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson Chourio: 3+
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Chourio: 3+
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Martin: 3+
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Martin: 3+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brooks Lee: 3+
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brooks Lee: 3+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
William Contreras: 3+
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Contreras: 3+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brice Turang: 3+
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brice Turang: 3+
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Christian Yelich: 3+
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Yelich: 3+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Jeffers: 3+
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Jeffers: 3+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Keaschall: 3+
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Keaschall: 3+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sal Frelick: 3+
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sal Frelick: 3+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Victor Caratini: 3+
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Victor Caratini: 3+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
David Hamilton: 3+
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Hamilton: 3+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Jake Bauers: 3+
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Bauers: 3+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joey Ortiz: 3+
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Ortiz: 3+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kody Clemens: 3+
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kody Clemens: 3+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Royce Lewis: 3+
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Royce Lewis: 3+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Mitchell: 3+
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Mitchell: 3+
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brice Turang: 4+
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brice Turang: 4+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson Chourio: 4+
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Chourio: 4+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
James Outman: 3+
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Outman: 3+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Kreidler: 3+
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Kreidler: 3+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
William Contreras: 4+
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Contreras: 4+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • William Contreras: 1+
  • Brice Turang: 1+
  • Jackson Chourio: 1+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Milwaukee vs Minnesota: Hits". William Contreras: 1+ last traded at 69%. Next is Brice Turang: 1+ at 67.5%. $7K has traded across 57 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on May 20, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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