The Prediction Markets

Milwaukee vs Philadelphia: Winning Margin

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Philadelphia wins by 16-25 points 26.8%

Next is Philadelphia wins by 11-15 points at 18.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Philadelphia wins by 16-25 points 26.8%Philadelphia wins by 11-15 points 18.4%Philadelphia wins by 26+ points 16.9%Philadelphia wins by 6-10 points 13%Philadelphia wins by 1-5 points 11.5%3 others 13.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Philadelphia wins by 16-25 points
26.8%
Kalshi 35%(26.8% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia wins by 16-25 points
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
26.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia wins by 11-15 points
18.4%
Kalshi 24%(18.4% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia wins by 11-15 points
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
18.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia wins by 26+ points
16.9%
Kalshi 22%(16.9% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia wins by 26+ points
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
16.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia wins by 6-10 points
13%
Kalshi 17%(13% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia wins by 6-10 points
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$353
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia wins by 1-5 points
11.5%
Kalshi 15%(11.5% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia wins by 1-5 points
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Kalshi
Milwaukee wins by 1-5 points
6.9%
Kalshi 9%(6.9% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Milwaukee wins by 1-5 points
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Milwaukee wins by 11+ points
3.4%
Kalshi 4.5%(3.4% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Milwaukee wins by 11+ points
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Milwaukee wins by 6-10 points
3.1%
Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Milwaukee wins by 6-10 points
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Philadelphia wins by 16-25 points
  • Philadelphia wins by 11-15 points
  • Philadelphia wins by 26+ points

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Milwaukee vs Philadelphia: Winning Margin". Philadelphia wins by 16-25 points leads at 26.8%. Next is Philadelphia wins by 11-15 points at 18.4%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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