The Prediction Markets

Minnesota Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$47K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Klobuchar, 2+ pts 93.2%

Next is Klobuchar, 5+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Klobuchar, 2+ pts
93.2%
Kalshi 93.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 2+ pts
Last price
93.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93.8¢
Sell Yes
93.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Klobuchar, 5+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 5+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Klobuchar, 8+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 8+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Klobuchar, 11+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 11+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Klobuchar, 14+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 14+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Klobuchar, 17+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 17+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $452 (4.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
22.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$452 (4.52x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
Klobuchar, 20+ pts
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 20+ pts
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Klobuchar, 26+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 26+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Polymarket
Klobuchar, 23+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klobuchar, 23+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$804
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Klobuchar, 2+ pts
  • Klobuchar, 5+ pts
  • Klobuchar, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Klobuchar, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota Governor margin of victory". Klobuchar, 2+ pts leads at 93.2%. Next is Klobuchar, 5+ pts at 83%. $47K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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