The Prediction Markets

Minnesota: Stage of Elimination

Closes
Mar 7, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Wildcard Round 29.2%

Next is Divisional Round at 21.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Wildcard Round 29.2%Divisional Round 21.2%Regular Season 18.6%Conference Championship 15.9%Runner-Up 8.9%Championship Winner 6.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Wildcard Round
29.2%
Kalshi 33%(29.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildcard Round
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
29.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Kalshi
Divisional Round
21.2%
Kalshi 24%(21.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Divisional Round
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
21.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Regular Season
18.6%
Kalshi 21%(18.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Regular Season
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
18.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Conference Championship
15.9%
Kalshi 18%(15.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conference Championship
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
15.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Runner-Up
8.9%
Kalshi 10%(8.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Runner-Up
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Kalshi
Championship Winner
6.2%
Kalshi 7%(6.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Championship Winner
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wildcard Round
  • Divisional Round
  • Regular Season

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota: Stage of Elimination". Wildcard Round leads at 29.2%. Next is Divisional Round at 21.2%. $10K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 7, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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