The Prediction Markets

Minnesota's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$33K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Finstad, 1+ pts 64%

Next is Finstad, 4+ pts at 39%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Finstad, 1+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Finstad, 1+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Finstad, 4+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Finstad, 4+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Johnson, 1+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Johnson, 1+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Finstad, 7+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Finstad, 7+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Johnson, 2+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Johnson, 2+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Johnson, 5+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Johnson, 5+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $602 (6.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.6¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$602 (6.02x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
13.3%
Polymarket 13.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
13.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
12.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Democrat 6%+
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Polymarket
Finstad, 10+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Finstad, 10+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Kalshi
Finstad, 13+ pts
9.1%
Kalshi 9.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Finstad, 13+ pts
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-18%
9.1%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
7.4%
Polymarket 7.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Finstad, 19+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Finstad, 19+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Finstad, 16+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Finstad, 16+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12-15%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$547
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Minnesota Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Finstad, 1+ pts
  • Finstad, 4+ pts
  • Johnson, 1+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Finstad, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota's 1st District margin of victory". Finstad, 1+ pts leads at 64%. Next is Finstad, 4+ pts at 39%. $33K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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