The Prediction Markets

Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Little, 1+ pts 95.6%

Next is Little, 4+ pts at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Little, 1+ pts
95.6%
Kalshi 95.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 1+ pts
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.6¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 4+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 4+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 7+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 7+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 10+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 10+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 13+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 13+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 16+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 16+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 19+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 19+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 20-25%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Little, 22+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 22+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Polymarket
Little, 25+ pts
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 25+ pts
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican Wins
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Little, 1+ pts
  • Little, 4+ pts
  • Little, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Little, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory". Little, 1+ pts leads at 95.6%. Next is Little, 4+ pts at 87%. $36K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets