The Prediction Markets

Minnesota's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

McCollum, 30+ pts 85%

Next is McCollum, 33+ pts at 78.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
McCollum, 30+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 94.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 30+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.4¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Kalshi
McCollum, 33+ pts
78.5%
Kalshi 78.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 33+ pts
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McCollum, 36+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 36+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McCollum, 39+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 39+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Kalshi
McCollum, 42+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 42+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
McCollum, 45+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 45+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Kalshi
McCollum, 48+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 48+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
23.6%
Polymarket 23.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 24.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $403 (4.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
23.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24.8¢
Sell Yes
22.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$403 (4.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 20.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $488 (4.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.5¢
Sell Yes
20.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$488 (4.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
McCollum, 51+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 51+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 50-55%
13.6%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 22.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $442 (4.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.6¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$442 (4.42x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
11.7%
Polymarket 11.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 12.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $794 (7.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
11.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
10.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60%+
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 18.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $541 (5.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60%+
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$541 (5.41x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
McCollum, 54+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
McCollum, 54+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-20%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-20%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$944
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$845
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-30%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-30%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55-60%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$767
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • McCollum, 30+ pts
  • McCollum, 33+ pts
  • McCollum, 36+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list McCollum, 30+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota's 4th District margin of victory". McCollum, 30+ pts leads at 85%. Next is McCollum, 33+ pts at 78.5%. $15K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets