The Prediction Markets

Minnesota's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Omar, 47+ pts 81%

Next is Omar, 50+ pts at 71%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Omar, 47+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 47+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Omar, 50+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 50+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Kalshi
Omar, 53+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 53+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Omar, 56+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 56+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Omar, 59+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 59+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$944
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
18.9%
Polymarket 18.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 26.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $372 (3.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
18.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.9¢
Sell Yes
10.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$372 (3.72x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55-60%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60-65%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Omar, 62+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 62+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
10.4%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$489
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Omar, 65+ pts
7.6%
Kalshi 7.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 65+ pts
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 75%+
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75%+
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$828
Trade this on Polymarket
Omar, 68+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 68+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Omar, 71+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar, 71+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican Wins
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 65-70%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-45%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-45%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 70-75%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-35%
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-35%
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Omar, 47+ pts
  • Omar, 50+ pts
  • Omar, 53+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Omar, 47+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota's 5th District margin of victory". Omar, 47+ pts leads at 81%. Next is Omar, 50+ pts at 71%. $31K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets