The Prediction Markets

Minnesota's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Emmer, 4+ pts 87%

Next is Emmer, 7+ pts at 77%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Emmer, 4+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 95.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 4+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmer, 7+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 7+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$355
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmer, 10+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 10+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmer, 13+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 13+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$546
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmer, 16+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 16+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Emmer, 19+ pts
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 19+ pts
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Emmer, 22+ pts
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 22+ pts
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Polymarket
Emmer, 28+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 28+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmer, 25+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmer, 25+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$409
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Emmer, 4+ pts
  • Emmer, 7+ pts
  • Emmer, 10+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Emmer, 4+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota's 6th District margin of victory". Emmer, 4+ pts leads at 87%. Next is Emmer, 7+ pts at 77%. $16K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets