The Prediction Markets

Minnesota's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Fischbach, 18+ pts 87%

Next is Fischbach, 24+ pts at 71%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fischbach, 18+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 18+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Kalshi
Fischbach, 24+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 24+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fischbach, 21+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 21+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$492
Trade this on Kalshi
Fischbach, 27+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 27+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Kalshi
Fischbach, 30+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 30+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
Fischbach, 33+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 33+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Fischbach, 36+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 36+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $439 (4.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22.8¢
Sell Yes
22.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$439 (4.39x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fischbach, 39+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 39+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 45%+
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $312 (3.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45%+
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$312 (3.12x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
16.4%
Polymarket 16.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $552 (5.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
16.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.1¢
Sell Yes
14.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$552 (5.52x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fischbach, 42+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fischbach, 42+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-15%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-15%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fischbach, 18+ pts
  • Fischbach, 24+ pts
  • Fischbach, 21+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fischbach, 18+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota's 7th District margin of victory". Fischbach, 18+ pts leads at 87%. Next is Fischbach, 24+ pts at 71%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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