The Prediction Markets

Mississauga mayoral election winner?

Closes
Oct 26, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bonnie Crombie 47.8%

Next is Carolyn Parrish at 24%. The venues differ most on Carolyn Parrish (Polymarket 20%, Kalshi 31%), a 11-point gap.

Bonnie Crombie 47.8%Carolyn Parrish 24%Alvin Tedjo 17.1%Dipika Damerla 1.2%Aamir Bhatti 1%9 others 8.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bonnie Crombie
47.8%
Polymarket 45%(49.2% fair)polled, 53s agoKalshi 44%(42.2% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bonnie Crombie
Last price
45%
Fair, margin removed
49.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bonnie Crombie
Last price
44%
Fair, margin removed
42.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 44¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 45¢.

Carolyn Parrish
24%
Polymarket 20%(21.9% fair)polled, 53s agoKalshi 31%(29.8% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carolyn Parrish
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
21.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carolyn Parrish
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
29.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 31¢.

Alvin Tedjo
17.1%
Polymarket 16.1%(17.6% fair)polled, 53s agoKalshi 16%(15.4% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 17.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $585 (5.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alvin Tedjo
Last price
16.1%
Fair, margin removed
17.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.1¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$585 (5.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alvin Tedjo
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$728
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

Dipika Damerla
1.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoKalshi 3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dipika Damerla
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dipika Damerla
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Aamir Bhatti
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aamir Bhatti
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Amjad Jilani
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amjad Jilani
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Ana Luisa Vasquez De Espinal
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ana Luisa Vasquez De Espinal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
David Shaw
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Shaw
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Fadi Naami
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fadi Naami
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Frank Fang
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frank Fang
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Gord Elliott
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gord Elliott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Karam Ahmed
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karam Ahmed
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Matulewicz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Matulewicz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohsin Khan
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mohsin Khan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
George Tavares
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Tavares
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$774
Trade this on Polymarket
Rahul Mehta
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahul Mehta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$709
Trade this on Polymarket
Zulfiqar Ali
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zulfiqar Ali
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City of Mississauga City Clerk
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bonnie Crombie
  • Carolyn Parrish
  • Alvin Tedjo

Live prices for Bonnie Crombie

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mississauga mayoral election winner?". Bonnie Crombie leads at 47.8%. Next is Carolyn Parrish at 24%. $43K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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