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What the markets expect
Above 530K 96.5%
Next is Above 650K at 93%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 530K96.5%96.5%94¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 530K96.5%Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 530K
96.5%
96.5%
94¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 530K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 530K
- Last price
- 96.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 650K93%93%84¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 1 min ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Above 650K93%Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 650K
93%
93%
84¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 650K
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 650K
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $200
Above 710K78%78%72¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 1 min ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)Above 710K78%Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Above 710K
78%
78%
72¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Above 710K
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 710K
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
Above 770K60%60%56¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 1 min ago60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Above 770K60%Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Above 770K
60%
60%
56¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Above 770K
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 770K
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $338
Above 830K51%51%39¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 1 min ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Above 830K51%Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Above 830K
51%
51%
39¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Above 830K
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 830K
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $217
Above 890K25%25%24¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 1 min ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Above 890K25%Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Above 890K
25%
25%
24¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Above 890K
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 890K
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $75
Above 950K15%15%12¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 1 min ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Above 950K15%Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 950K
15%
15%
12¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 950K
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 950K
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $100
Above 1.07M13%13%1¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Above 1.07M13%Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Above 1.07M
13%
13%
1¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Above 1.07M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.07M
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $214
Above 1.01M12%12%6¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 1 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Above 1.01M12%Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Above 1.01M
12%
12%
6¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Above 1.01M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.01M
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
Above 1.29M6%6%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 1.29M6%Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 1.29M
6%
6%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 1.29M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.29M
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $1
Show 3 more outcomesHide 3 outcomes
Above 1.13M4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 1.13M4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 1.13M
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 1.13M
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.13M
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 1.18M4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Above 1.18M4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 1.18M
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 1.18M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.18M
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 1.23M3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Above 1.23M3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 1.23M
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 1.23M
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.23M
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Mississippi Secretary of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 530K
- Above 650K
- Above 710K
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Mississippi Senate General Election: voter turnout". Above 530K leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 650K at 93%. $1K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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