The Prediction Markets

Mississippi Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$77K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Hyde-Smith, 1+ pts 88.7%

Next is Hyde-Smith, 3+ pts at 81%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

1 of 13 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 1+ pts
88.7%
Kalshi 88.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 93.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 1+ pts
Last price
88.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.3¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 3+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 3+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$943
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 5+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 5+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 7+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 7+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 9+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%live, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 9+ pts
Price
41%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 10+ pts
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 10+ pts
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 11+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 11+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 13+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 13+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 15+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 15+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$934
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 17+ pts
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 17+ pts
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Hyde-Smith, 19+ pts
7.2%
Kalshi 7.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 19+ pts
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 21+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 21+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyde-Smith, 23+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyde-Smith, 23+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Mississippi Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hyde-Smith, 1+ pts
  • Hyde-Smith, 3+ pts
  • Hyde-Smith, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mississippi Senate margin of victory". Hyde-Smith, 1+ pts leads at 88.7%. Next is Hyde-Smith, 3+ pts at 81%. $77K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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