The Prediction Markets

Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Republicans, 1+ pts 66%

Next is Republicans, 3+ pts at 46%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republicans, 1+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 1+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 3+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 3+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 6+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 6+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 9+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 9+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 12+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 12+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
13.2%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $559 (5.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.9¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$559 (5.59x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 6%+
12.3%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.5¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$606 (6.06x)
Volume
$722
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 15+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 15+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12-15%
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 21+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 21+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 18+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 18+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$744
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 9-12%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$649
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republicans, 1+ pts
  • Republicans, 3+ pts
  • Republicans, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Republicans, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory". Republicans, 1+ pts leads at 66%. Next is Republicans, 3+ pts at 46%. $29K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets