The Prediction Markets

Missouri's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Republicans, 5+ pts 93.9%

Next is Republicans, 8+ pts at 93.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republicans, 5+ pts
93.9%
Kalshi 93.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 5+ pts
Last price
93.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 8+ pts
93.8%
Kalshi 93.8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 8+ pts
Last price
93.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
93.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 14+ pts
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 14+ pts
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
90.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$736
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 11+ pts
92.6%
Kalshi 92.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 11+ pts
Last price
92.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$518
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 17+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 17+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 20+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 92.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 20+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.9¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 23+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 23+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 26+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 26+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 29+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 29+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30%+
57.9%
Polymarket 57.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 60.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
57.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60.9¢
Sell Yes
54.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Republicans, 32+ pts
37.5%
Kalshi 37.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 32+ pts
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 35+ pts
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 35+ pts
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 38+ pts
13.8%
Kalshi 13.8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 38+ pts
Last price
13.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$993
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 41+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 41+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 44+ pts
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 44+ pts
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$994
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$861
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republicans, 5+ pts
  • Republicans, 8+ pts
  • Republicans, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Republicans, 5+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Missouri's 4th District margin of victory". Republicans, 5+ pts leads at 93.9%. Next is Republicans, 8+ pts at 93.8%. $30K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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