The Prediction Markets

Missouri's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$84K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Democrat 3%+ 95.2%

Next is Democrats, 3+ pts at 95.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democrat 3%+
95.2%
Polymarket 95.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3%+
Last price
95.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
94.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats, 3+ pts
95.2%
Kalshi 95.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 3+ pts
Last price
95.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 6+ pts
94.7%
Kalshi 94.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 6+ pts
Last price
94.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 18+ pts
93.1%
Kalshi 93.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 18+ pts
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.1¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 21+ pts
86.9%
Kalshi 86.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 21+ pts
Last price
86.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92.8¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 24+ pts
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 24+ pts
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 27+ pts
60.5%
Kalshi 60.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 27+ pts
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 30+ pts
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 30+ pts
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 33+ pts
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 33+ pts
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 36+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 36+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Republicans, 15+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 15+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 18+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 18+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 12+ pts
3.6%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 12+ pts
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$633
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 9+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 9+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 3+ pts
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 3+ pts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 6+ pts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 6+ pts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18-21%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 21%+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrat 3%+
  • Democrats, 3+ pts
  • Democrats, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Democrat 3%+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Missouri's 5th District margin of victory". Democrat 3%+ leads at 95.2%. Next is Democrats, 3+ pts at 95.2%. $84K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets