The Prediction Markets

Missouri's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Republicans, 9+ pts 93.6%

Next is Republicans, 15+ pts at 93.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republicans, 9+ pts
93.6%
Kalshi 93.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 9+ pts
Last price
93.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
93.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 15+ pts
93.3%
Kalshi 93.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 15+ pts
Last price
93.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
90.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 12+ pts
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 12+ pts
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 18+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 18+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 21+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 90.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 21+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.2¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 24+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 24+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 27+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 27+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 30+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 30+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans, 33+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 33+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $395 (3.95x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25.3¢
Sell Yes
19.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$395 (3.95x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Republican 25-30%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 36+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 36+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35%+
13.4%
Polymarket 13.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $407 (4.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
13.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24.6¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$407 (4.07x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
11.6%
Polymarket 11.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $483 (4.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
11.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.7¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$483 (4.83x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 39+ pts
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 39+ pts
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans, 42+ pts
4.2%
Kalshi 4.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans, 42+ pts
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republicans, 9+ pts
  • Republicans, 15+ pts
  • Republicans, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Republicans, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Missouri's 6th District margin of victory". Republicans, 9+ pts leads at 93.6%. Next is Republicans, 15+ pts at 93.3%. $26K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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