The Prediction Markets

MLB 2026: World Series Division Winner

Closes
Nov 16, 2026, in 24 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

NL Central 63.3%

Next is AL East at 36.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

NL Central 63.3%AL East 36.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
NL Central
63.3%
Polymarket 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
NL Central
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
AL East
36.7%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
AL East
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: mlb.com

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • NL Central
  • AL East

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MLB 2026: World Series Division Winner". NL Central leads at 63.3%. Next is AL East at 36.7%. $9K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the division of the team that wins the 2026 World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed division to produce the 2026 World Series champion (e.g., all of its teams have been eliminated from the 2026 MLB Postseason), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 World Series is cancelled, postponed after November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within that timeframe, each listed division's market will resolve to "No" and the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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