The Prediction Markets

MLB: AL Manager of the Year

Closes
Dec 19, 2026, in 57 days
Traded
$83K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Will Venable 80.2%

Next is Kevin Cash at 17.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Will Venable 80.2%Kevin Cash 17.8%Stephen Vogt 0.6%Skip Schumaker 0.4%Craig Albernaz 0.2%8 others 0.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Will Venable
80.2%
Polymarket 81.7%(80.2% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 82.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $121 (1.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Will Venable
Last price
81.7%
Fair, margin removed
80.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82.7¢
Sell Yes
80.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$121 (1.21x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kevin Cash
17.8%
Polymarket 18.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 18.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $535 (5.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Cash
Last price
18.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.7¢
Sell Yes
17.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$535 (5.35x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen Vogt
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Vogt
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Skip Schumaker
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skip Schumaker
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Craig Albernaz
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Craig Albernaz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
A.J. Hinch
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
A.J. Hinch
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aaron Boone
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Boone
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Cora
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Cora
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chad Tracy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chad Tracy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Wilson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Wilson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Derek Shelton
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Derek Shelton
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Espada
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Espada
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Schneider
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Schneider
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kurt Suzuki
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kurt Suzuki
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$897
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Kotsay
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kotsay
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Quatraro
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Quatraro
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Will Venable
  • Kevin Cash
  • Stephen Vogt

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MLB: AL Manager of the Year". Will Venable leads at 80.2%. Next is Kevin Cash at 17.8%. $83K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 19, 2026.

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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