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What the markets expect
Bobby Witt Jr. 48%
Next is Ceddanne Rafaela at 28.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Bobby Witt Jr.48%37%48% fair36¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 35s ago38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Bobby Witt Jr.48%Polymarket 37%(48% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Bobby Witt Jr.
48%
37%
48% fair
36¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Bobby Witt Jr.
48%
Polymarket 37%(48% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Last price
- 37%
- Fair, margin removed
- 48%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $14K
Ceddanne Rafaela28.5%22%28.6% fair20¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 35s ago24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Ceddanne Rafaela28.5%Polymarket 22%(28.6% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Ceddanne Rafaela
28.5%
22%
28.6% fair
20¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Ceddanne Rafaela
28.5%
Polymarket 22%(28.6% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Last price
- 22%
- Fair, margin removed
- 28.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $4K
Cody Bellinger6.6%5.1%6.6% fair0.1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 35s ago10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Cody Bellinger6.6%Polymarket 5.1%(6.6% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Cody Bellinger
6.6%
5.1%
6.6% fair
0.1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Cody Bellinger
6.6%
Polymarket 5.1%(6.6% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cody Bellinger
- Last price
- 5.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $921
Dillon Dingler5.1%4%5.1% fair3¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 35s ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Dillon Dingler5.1%Polymarket 4%(5.1% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Dillon Dingler
5.1%
4%
5.1% fair
3¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Dillon Dingler
5.1%
Polymarket 4%(5.1% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dillon Dingler
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $12K
Wilyer Abreu4.8%3.7%4.8% fair0.4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 35s ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Wilyer Abreu4.8%Polymarket 3.7%(4.8% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Wilyer Abreu
4.8%
3.7%
4.8% fair
0.4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Wilyer Abreu
4.8%
Polymarket 3.7%(4.8% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wilyer Abreu
- Last price
- 3.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Taylor Walls4.3%3.4%4.3% fair1.7¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 35s ago5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Taylor Walls4.3%Polymarket 3.4%(4.3% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Taylor Walls
4.3%
3.4%
4.3% fair
1.7¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Taylor Walls
4.3%
Polymarket 3.4%(4.3% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Taylor Walls
- Last price
- 3.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $595
Andrés Giménez0.8%0.7%0.2¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 35s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Andrés Giménez0.8%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Andrés Giménez
0.8%
0.7%
0.2¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Andrés Giménez
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andrés Giménez
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $450
Caleb Durbin0.8%0.7%0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 35s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Caleb Durbin0.8%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Caleb Durbin
0.8%
0.7%
0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Caleb Durbin
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Caleb Durbin
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $600
Cole Young0.4%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 35s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Cole Young0.4%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Cole Young
0.4%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Cole Young
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cole Young
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $372K
Steven Kwan0.3%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 35s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Steven Kwan0.3%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Steven Kwan
0.3%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Steven Kwan
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steven Kwan
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 4 more outcomesHide 4 outcomes
Cam Smith0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 35s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Cam Smith0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Cam Smith
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Cam Smith
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cam Smith
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $251
Chase Meidroth0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 35s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Chase Meidroth0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Chase Meidroth
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Chase Meidroth
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chase Meidroth
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $167
Tanner Bibee0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 35s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Tanner Bibee0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tanner Bibee
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tanner Bibee
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tanner Bibee
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $167
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 35s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Vladimir Guerrero Jr.0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 35s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $208
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Cody Bellinger
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "MLB: AL Platinum Glove Winner". Bobby Witt Jr. leads at 48%. Next is Ceddanne Rafaela at 28.5%. $1.1M has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 19, 2026.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Platinum Glove award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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