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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Yordan Alvarez 92.2%
Next is Kerry Carpenter at 0.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Yordan Alvarez92.2%96.7%92.2% fair94.6¢ bid, 98.7¢ askpolled, 19s ago98.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Yordan Alvarez92.2%Polymarket 96.7%(92.2% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Yordan Alvarez
92.2%
96.7%
92.2% fair
94.6¢ bid, 98.7¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
98.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Yordan Alvarez
92.2%
Polymarket 96.7%(92.2% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yordan Alvarez
- Last price
- 96.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 92.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 94.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kerry Carpenter0.9%0.9%0.2¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 19s ago1.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)Kerry Carpenter0.9%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Kerry Carpenter
0.9%
0.9%
0.2¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
1.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Kerry Carpenter
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kerry Carpenter
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Eugenio Suarez0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 19s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Eugenio Suarez0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Eugenio Suarez
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Eugenio Suarez
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eugenio Suarez
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
George Springer0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 19s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)George Springer0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
George Springer
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
George Springer
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- George Springer
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $8K
Mark Vientos0.6%0.6%— bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 19s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Mark Vientos0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Mark Vientos
0.6%
0.6%
— bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Mark Vientos
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Vientos
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $496
Miguel Andujar0.6%0.7%0.2¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 19s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Miguel Andujar0.6%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Miguel Andujar
0.6%
0.7%
0.2¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Miguel Andujar
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Miguel Andujar
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $695
Starling Marte0.6%0.7%0.3¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 19s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Starling Marte0.6%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Starling Marte
0.6%
0.7%
0.3¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Starling Marte
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Starling Marte
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Joc Pederson0.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Joc Pederson0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Joc Pederson
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Joc Pederson
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Joc Pederson
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $828
Marcell Ozuna0.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Marcell Ozuna0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Marcell Ozuna
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Marcell Ozuna
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marcell Ozuna
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $850
Giancarlo Stanton0.4%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Giancarlo Stanton0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Giancarlo Stanton
0.4%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Giancarlo Stanton
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $5K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Ryan O'Hearn0.4%0.5%0.3¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Ryan O'Hearn0.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Ryan O'Hearn
0.4%
0.5%
0.3¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Ryan O'Hearn
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $675
Brent Rooker0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Brent Rooker0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Brent Rooker
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Brent Rooker
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Brent Rooker
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $779
Brett Baty0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Brett Baty0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Brett Baty
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Brett Baty
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Brett Baty
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $819
Christian Yelich0.3%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Christian Yelich0.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Christian Yelich
0.3%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Christian Yelich
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Christian Yelich
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $943
Ivan Herrera0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Ivan Herrera0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ivan Herrera
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ivan Herrera
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ivan Herrera
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $616
Samuel Basallo0.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Samuel Basallo0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Samuel Basallo
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Samuel Basallo
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Samuel Basallo
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $692
James Wood0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)James Wood0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
James Wood
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
James Wood
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Wood
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $279
Jarren Duran0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Jarren Duran0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Jarren Duran
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Jarren Duran
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jarren Duran
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $654
Jurickson Profar0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Jurickson Profar0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Jurickson Profar
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Jurickson Profar
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jurickson Profar
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $611
Kyle Schwarber0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Kyle Schwarber0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kyle Schwarber
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kyle Schwarber
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kyle Schwarber
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2K
Mickey Moniak0.1%0.2%— bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Mickey Moniak0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Mickey Moniak
0.1%
0.2%
— bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Mickey Moniak
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mickey Moniak
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $605
Shohei Ohtani0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Shohei Ohtani0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Shohei Ohtani
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Shohei Ohtani
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Shohei Ohtani
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $1K
Yandy Diaz0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Yandy Diaz0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Yandy Diaz
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Yandy Diaz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yandy Diaz
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $525
Mike Trout0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Mike Trout0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Mike Trout
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Mike Trout
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mike Trout
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $355
Nick Castellanos0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Nick Castellanos0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Nick Castellanos
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Nick Castellanos
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nick Castellanos
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $609
Salvador Perez0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 19s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Salvador Perez0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Salvador Perez
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 19s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Salvador Perez
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Salvador Perez
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $573
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Yordan Alvarez
- Kerry Carpenter
- Eugenio Suarez
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "MLB: Outstanding DH Winner". Yordan Alvarez leads at 92.2%. Next is Kerry Carpenter at 0.9%. $37K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 19, 2026.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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