The Prediction Markets

MLB Postseason: SB Leader

Closes
Nov 16, 2026, in 24 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Chandler Simpson 48.7%

Next is David Hamilton at 17.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Chandler Simpson 48.7%David Hamilton 17.2%Taylor Walls 10.9%Jazz Chisholm Jr. 7.3%Jorge Mateo 4.6%3 others 11.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Chandler Simpson
48.7%
Polymarket 49.5%(48.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chandler Simpson
Last price
49.5%
Fair, margin removed
48.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Hamilton
17.2%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Hamilton
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Walls
10.9%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $474 (4.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Walls
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$474 (4.74x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
7.3%
Polymarket 7.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Polymarket
Jorge Mateo
4.6%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jorge Mateo
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Polymarket
Brice Turang
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brice Turang
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Cedric Mullins
3.8%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cedric Mullins
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Jackson Chourio
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Chourio
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chandler Simpson
  • David Hamilton
  • Taylor Walls

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MLB Postseason: SB Leader". Chandler Simpson leads at 48.7%. Next is David Hamilton at 17.2%. $5K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes the 2026 MLB Postseason with the most stolen bases. In the event of a tie for the most stolen bases, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with the fewest times caught stealing across the 2026 MLB Postseason. If a tie still persists, each tied player's market will resolve to "No" and the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes". Only stolen bases in 2026 MLB Postseason games will count toward this market. The 2026 MLB Postseason comprises the Wild Card Series, the Division Series, the League Championship Series, and the World Series. Regular season games, exhibition games, and any tiebreaker or "Game 163" will not be considered part of the 2026 MLB Postseason. The "Other" market will resolve to "Yes" if the player who leads is not among the listed players. If the 2026 MLB Postseason is cancelled, or the World Series has not concluded by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, every named player's market will resolve to "No" and the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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