The Prediction Markets

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$25.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Vancouver 17.4%

Next is Nashville at 17%. The venues differ most on Nashville (Polymarket 17.8%, Kalshi 20%), a 2.3-point gap.

Vancouver 17.4%Nashville 17%Miami 14%Saint Louis 6.8%Philadelphia 5.4%27 others 39.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 59 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Vancouver
17.4%
Polymarket 18.4%(17.4% fair)polled, 40s agoKalshi 20%(16.3% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 18.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $532 (5.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Last price
18.4%
Fair, margin removed
17.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.8¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$532 (5.32x)
Volume
$407K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vancouver
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
16.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$204K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18.8¢.

NashvilleArb
17%
Polymarket 17.8%(16.8% fair)live, 30s agoKalshi 20%(16.3% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nashville SC
Price
17.8%
Fair, margin removed
16.8%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
17.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$346K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nashville
Price
20%
Fair, margin removed
16.3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$224K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 18.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 19¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Miami
14%
Polymarket 16.5%(15.6% fair)polled, 40s agoKalshi 16%(13% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inter Miami CF
Last price
16.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$133K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miami
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$402K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Saint Louis
6.8%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 8%(6.5% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
St. Louis City SC
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Saint Louis
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.2¢.

Philadelphia
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 40s agoKalshi 7%(5.7% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philadelphia Union
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$250K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$148K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.7¢.

Dallas
4.7%
Polymarket 5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
FC Dallas
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$101K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Chicago
4.3%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 40s agoKalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chicago Fire FC
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$256K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chicago
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Los Angeles F
4.2%
Kalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles F
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$166K
Trade this on Kalshi
Los Angeles FC
3.7%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles FC
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Polymarket
Houston
3.3%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 40s agoKalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston Dynamo FC
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$490K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$78K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Show 22 more outcomes
New England
2.8%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
New England Revolution
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New England
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.2¢.

San Jose
2.6%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 40s agoKalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Jose Earthquakes
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
San Jose
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$119K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Charlotte
2.5%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 40s agoKalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlotte FC
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charlotte
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Los Angeles G
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles G
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Seattle
1.4%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Seattle Sounders FC
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$872K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Seattle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$168K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Orlando
1.2%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orlando City SC
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Orlando
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

CincinnatiArb
1%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 40s agoKalshi 2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
FC Cincinnati
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cincinnati
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Kansas City
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas City
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Colorado
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colorado Rapids
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$143K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colorado
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

New York City
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York City FC
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$713K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New York City
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Toronto
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toronto FC
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$109K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toronto
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

New York RB
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York Red Bulls
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New York RB
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

LA Galaxy
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
LA Galaxy
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$333K
Trade this on Polymarket
Columbus
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Columbus Crew
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Columbus
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Atlanta
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atlanta United FC
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$104K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Atlanta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

DC
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
D.C. United
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$394K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Portland
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portland Timbers
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Portland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

San Diego
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Diego FC
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
San Diego
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Austin
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Austin FC
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$137K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Austin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Minnesota
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota United FC
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$497K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Montréal
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
CF Montréal
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Montréal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Salt Lake
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Real Salt Lake
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Salt Lake
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Nashville on Polymarket at 18.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 19¢ (80 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Vancouver
  • Nashville
  • Miami

Live prices for Vancouver

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MLS Cup Winner 2026". Vancouver leads at 17.4%. Next is Nashville at 17%. $25.3M has traded across 32 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets