The Prediction Markets

MLS Golden Boot

Closes
Nov 15, 2026, in 23 days
Traded
$985K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lionel Messi 96.3%

Next is Marcus Ingvartsen at 48.5%. The venues differ most on Evander (Polymarket 0.1%, Kalshi 48.5%), a 48-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lionel MessiArb
96.3%
Polymarket 97.1%polled, 37s agoKalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
97.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 96¢ and selling on Polymarket at 96.2¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Marcus Ingvartsen
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marcus Ingvartsen
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin Ojeda
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Ojeda
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicolas Fernandez
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolas Fernandez
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Preston Judd
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Preston Judd
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Antoine Griezmann
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antoine Griezmann
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Denkey
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Denkey
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Luis Suarez
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Suarez
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian White
24.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 37s agoKalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brian White
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.

Hugo Cuypers
24.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 37s agoKalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hugo Cuypers
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hugo Cuypers
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.

Show 26 more outcomes
Evander
24.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoKalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evander
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Evander
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.

Sam Surridge
24.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Surridge
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Surridge
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96¢.

Milan Iloski
24.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 37s agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Milan Iloski
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Milan Iloski
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96¢.

Tai Baribo
24%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tai Baribo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tai Baribo
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Robert Lewandowski
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Lewandowski
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denis Bouanga
2.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 37s agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Bouanga
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Bouanga
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 95¢.

Petar Musa
2.3%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 37s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Petar Musa
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Petar Musa
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.6¢.

Kevin Denkey
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kévin Denkey
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alonso Martínez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alonso Martínez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hany Mukhtar
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hany Mukhtar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Martin Ojeda
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martín Ojeda
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Prince-Osei Owusu
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prince-Osei Owusu
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Albert Rusnák
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Albert Rusnák
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anders Dreyer
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anders Dreyer
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
Cheikh Sabaly
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cheikh Sabaly
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
Danny Musovski
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danny Musovski
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Polymarket
Dejan Joveljić
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dejan Joveljić
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Diego Rossi
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Diego Rossi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Polymarket
Djordje Mihailovic
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Djordje Mihailovic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$461K
Trade this on Polymarket
Germán Berterame
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germán Berterame
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$76K
Trade this on Polymarket
Idan Toklomati
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Idan Toklomati
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Polymarket
Louis Munteanu
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Louis Munteanu
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Pašalić
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Pašalić
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
Philip Zinckernagel
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philip Zinckernagel
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
Tadeo Allende
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tadeo Allende
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$237K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Lionel Messi on Kalshi at 96¢, sell on Polymarket at 96.2¢ (20 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, Sky Sports, NBC Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 22, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lionel Messi
  • Marcus Ingvartsen
  • Martin Ojeda

Live prices for Lionel Messi

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MLS Golden Boot". Lionel Messi leads at 96.3%. Next is Marcus Ingvartsen at 48.5%. $985K has traded across 36 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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