The Prediction Markets

MN-05 House election: John Nagel vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 14% 94%

Next is At least 16% at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 14%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
At least 14%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 16%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
At least 16%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 18%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 18%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 20%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 20%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 22%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 22%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 24%
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 24%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 26%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 26%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 28%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 28%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, St. Paul, MN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 14%
  • At least 16%
  • At least 18%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MN-05 House election: John Nagel vote percent". At least 14% leads at 94%. Next is At least 16% at 94%. $10K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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