The Prediction Markets

Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 35% 96%

Next is At least 40% at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 35%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 35%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 43%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 43%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 45%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 45%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 46%
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46%
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$422
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 47%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 47%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 48%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 48%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 49%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 49%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 55%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 55%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 60%
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 60%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Montana Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 35%
  • At least 40%
  • At least 43%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent". At least 35% leads at 96%. Next is At least 40% at 89%. $13K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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