The Prediction Markets

Montana Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Alme, 1+ pts 90%

Next is Alme, 5+ pts at 80%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Alme, 1+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 1+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alme, 5+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 5+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$370
Trade this on Kalshi
Alme, 10+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 10+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alme, 12+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 12+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alme, 15+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 15+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 9-12%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
14.9%
Polymarket 14.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $641 (6.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
14.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.6¢
Sell Yes
14.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$641 (6.41x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
14.6%
Polymarket 14.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $415 (4.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24.1¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$415 (4.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Alme, 20+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 20+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 18-21%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$731
Trade this on Polymarket
Alme, 25+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 25+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent 0-3%
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independent 0-3%
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 21%+
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alme, 30+ pts
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 30+ pts
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alme, 35+ pts
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 35+ pts
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alme, 40+ pts
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alme, 40+ pts
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent 3%+
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independent 3%+
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Montana Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alme, 1+ pts
  • Alme, 5+ pts
  • Alme, 10+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Alme, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Montana Senate margin of victory". Alme, 1+ pts leads at 90%. Next is Alme, 5+ pts at 80%. $28K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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