The Prediction Markets

Montana's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Flint, 1+ pts 50%

Next is Forstag, 1+ pts at 44%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Flint, 1+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flint, 1+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Forstag, 1+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Forstag, 1+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Kalshi
Flint, 3+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flint, 3+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Forstag, 3+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Forstag, 3+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Flint, 6+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flint, 6+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Forstag, 6+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Forstag, 6+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
15.3%
Polymarket 15.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 17.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $568 (5.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
15.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.6¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$568 (5.68x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Flint, 9+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flint, 9+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Forstag, 9+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Forstag, 9+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Flint, 12+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flint, 12+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Kalshi
Flint, 15+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flint, 15+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 9-12%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12%+
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$971
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12%+
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Flint, 1+ pts
  • Forstag, 1+ pts
  • Flint, 3+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Flint, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Montana's 1st District margin of victory". Flint, 1+ pts leads at 50%. Next is Forstag, 1+ pts at 44%. $31K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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