The Prediction Markets

Montana's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Downing, 13+ pts 90.1%

Next is Downing, 16+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Downing, 13+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 95.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 13+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.4¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Downing, 16+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 93.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 16+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.9¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Kalshi
Downing, 19+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 19+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Kalshi
Downing, 22+ pts
58.5%
Kalshi 58.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 22+ pts
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Downing, 25+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 25+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $262 (2.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38.1¢
Sell Yes
36.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$262 (2.62x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Downing, 28+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 28+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Downing, 31+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 31+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Downing, 37+ pts
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 37+ pts
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$451
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
Downing, 34+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Downing, 34+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 40%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$507
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Downing, 13+ pts
  • Downing, 16+ pts
  • Downing, 19+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Downing, 13+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Montana's 2nd District margin of victory". Downing, 13+ pts leads at 90.1%. Next is Downing, 16+ pts at 83%. $15K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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