The Prediction Markets

Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (October 2026)

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$76K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 5.25M 39%

Next is Above 6.5M at 30%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 5.25M
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25M
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.5M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.25M
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.25M
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75M
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75M
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5M
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5M
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.75M
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.75M
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6M
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.5M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.25M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.25M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 7M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi
25M
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
25M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
24M
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
24M
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.75M
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.75M
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
26M
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
26M
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
27M
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
27M
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: charts.youtube.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 5.25M
  • Above 6.5M
  • Above 6.25M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 5.25M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (October 2026)". Above 5.25M leads at 39%. Next is Above 6.5M at 30%. $76K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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