The Prediction Markets

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

Closes
Apr 1, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 6.00% 67%

Next is Above 6.25% at 65%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 6.00%
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.25%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.25%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.50%
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.50%
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.75%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.75%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.00%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.00%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.25%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.25%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.50%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.50%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.75%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.75%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.00%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.00%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.25%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.25%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Above 8.50%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.50%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.75%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.75%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.00%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.00%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Freddie Mac

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 6.00%
  • Above 6.25%
  • Above 6.50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 6.00% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?". Above 6.00% leads at 67%. Next is Above 6.25% at 65%. $5K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the mortgage delinquency rate is greater than 3.00% for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The mortgage delinquency rate is the delinquency rate on residential real estate loans shown in the "Residential" column under "Real estate loans, Booked in domestic offices" in the Federal Reserve's "Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA" table (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm). This market will resolve as soon as the mortgage delinquency rate for a qualifying quarter is greater than 3.00%, or once data for Q4 2027 has been published. If no data for Q4 2027 has been published by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. All published quarterly figures will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve table linked above. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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