Moscow air traffic suspended by...?

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Moscow air traffic suspended by...?". December 31 leads at 67.5%. Next is November 30 at 53%. $3K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The relevant airports are: - Sheremetyevo (SVO); - Domodedovo (DME); and - Vnukovo (VKO). A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Official notices suspending arrivals and departures at the relevant airports will qualify (e.g., notices that “temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures” have been introduced, or that an airport is closed or is not accepting or dispatching flights). A suspension at an airport will be considered in effect from the official notice announcing it until the next official notice for that airport indicating that it is accepting or dispatching flights (e.g., in agreement with the relevant authorities) or that restrictions have been lifted. Notices that an airport continues to accept and dispatch flights subject to coordination or agreement with the relevant authorities (e.g., notices that an airport “accepts and dispatches flights in agreement with the relevant authorities in connection with the introduction of temporary restrictions on the use of airspace”) will not qualify as a suspension at that airport, even though they may refer to temporary restrictions. Reports of flight restrictions, delays, diversions, or cancellations will not on their own establish a suspension, and individual flights operating during a suspension or flight-tracking data will not be considered. A suspension will not qualify if official communications or a consensus of credible reporting attribute it to weather, runway conditions, maintenance, or other operational reasons (e.g., snow removal or icing); a general reference to flight safety will not count as such an attribution. Qualifying examples include the Rosaviatsiya notice of October 23, 2026, 9:43 AM ET, introducing temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures at Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky, and Sheremetyevo. Non-qualifying examples include October 5–6, 2026, when Sheremetyevo was under temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures while Vnukovo and Domodedovo were only accepting and dispatching flights in agreement with the relevant authorities. The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including Rosaviatsiya (e.g., its official Telegram channel, https://t.me/favt_info); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used if such official communications regarding a relevant airport are unavailable.

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