The Prediction Markets

Most expensive auction work sold in 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$60K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $150M 98%

Next is Above $200M at 48%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $150M
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $150M
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $200M
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $200M
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $250M
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $250M
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $300M
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $300M
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $350M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $350M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $400M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $400M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $450M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $450M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $500M
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $500M
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Artsy

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $150M
  • Above $200M
  • Above $250M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Most expensive auction work sold in 2026". Above $150M leads at 98%. Next is Above $200M at 48%. $60K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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