The Prediction Markets

MotoGP World Champion (2026)

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 38 days
Traded
$120K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Marc Marquez 61.8%

Next is Jorge Martin at 19.1%. The venues differ most on Marc Marquez (Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 72%), a 5.5-point gap.

Marc Marquez 61.8%Jorge Martin 19.1%Marco Bezzecchi 3.2%Ai Ogura 1.3%Raul Fernandez 1.1%17 others 13.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marc MarquezArb
61.8%
Polymarket 77.5%(66.6% fair)polled, 55s agoKalshi 72%(60% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Marquez
Last price
77.5%
Fair, margin removed
66.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Marquez
Last price
72%
Fair, margin removed
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 73¢ and selling on Polymarket at 75¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Jorge Martin
19.1%
Polymarket 21.5%(18.5% fair)polled, 55s agoKalshi 23%(19.2% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jorge Martin
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jorge Martin
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
19.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

Marco Bezzecchi
3.2%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 55s agoKalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Bezzecchi
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Bezzecchi
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Ai Ogura
1.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 55s agoKalshi 2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ai Ogura
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ai Ogura
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Raul Fernandez
1.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 55s agoKalshi 2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raul Fernandez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raul Fernandez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$647
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Alex Rins
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Rins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Binder
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Binder
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Diogo Moreira
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diogo Moreira
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Enea Bastianini
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Enea Bastianini
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Fabio Quartararo
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fabio Quartararo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Fermin Aldeguer
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fermin Aldeguer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Francesco Bagnaia
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Francesco Bagnaia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$757
Trade this on Kalshi
Franco Morbidelli
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franco Morbidelli
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack Miller
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack Miller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Joan Mir
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joan Mir
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Johann Zarco
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Johann Zarco
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Luca Marini
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luca Marini
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Maverick Vinales
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maverick Vinales
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Toprak Razgatlioglu
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toprak Razgatlioglu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Marquez
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 55s agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Marquez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Marquez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Pedro Acosta
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 55s agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Acosta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Acosta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Fabio Di Giannantonio
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabio Di Giannantonio
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fabio Di Giannantonio
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marc Marquez on Kalshi at 73¢, sell on Polymarket at 75¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: motogp.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, MotoGP, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marc Marquez
  • Jorge Martin
  • Marco Bezzecchi

Live prices for Marc Marquez

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MotoGP World Champion (2026)". Marc Marquez leads at 61.8%. Next is Jorge Martin at 19.1%. $120K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the rider who wins the 2026 MotoGP World Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed rider to win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from title contention), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MotoGP season is cancelled, postponed after December 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no World Champion crowned within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from MotoGP / the FIM (https://www.motogp.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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