The Prediction Markets

Moutet vs Machac

Starts in 7 hKickoff
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5 74%

Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 73.5%. The venues differ most on Moutet (Polymarket 43%, Kalshi 44%), a 1.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 21.5
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Tomas Machac
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tomas Machac
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Kalshi
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 2 Winner
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 Winner
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Moutet
43.4%
Polymarket 43%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 44%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Corentin Moutet
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 23.5
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Moutet vs Machac". Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 74%. Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 73.5%. $2K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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