The Prediction Markets

Moutet vs Paul

Starts in 12 hKickoff
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Tommy Paul 77%

Next is Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5 at 75.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tommy Paul
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tommy Paul
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 21.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Game Spread +/-4.5
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 23.5
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set 1 Winner
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set 2 Winner
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Moutet
23.6%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 24%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Corentin Moutet
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tommy Paul
  • Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5
  • Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Tommy Paul for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Moutet vs Paul". Tommy Paul leads at 77%. Next is Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5 at 75.5%. $7K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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