The Prediction Markets

Muse: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

25k+ 89%

Next is 50k+ at 76%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
25k+
89%
Polymarket 89%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
25k+
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
50k+
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
50k+
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 10K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$647
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8K
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8K
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
200k+
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
200k+
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 12K
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12K
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15K
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15K
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18K
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18K
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Kalshi
100k+
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
100k+
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 20K
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20K
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: hitsdailydouble.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25k+
  • 50k+
  • Above 10K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 25k+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Muse: First Week Album Equivalent Units". 25k+ leads at 89%. Next is 50k+ at 76%. $12K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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