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What the markets expect
Over 0.5 goals scored 96%
Next is Over 1.5 goals scored at 86%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Over 0.5 goals scored96%Not listed96%95¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 3 min ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Over 0.5 goals scored96%Kalshi 96%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Over 0.5 goals scored
96%
Not listed
96%
95¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Over 0.5 goals scored
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 0.5 goals scored
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $117
Over 1.5 goals scored86%Not listed86%85¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 3 min ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Over 1.5 goals scored86%Kalshi 86%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Over 1.5 goals scored
86%
Not listed
86%
85¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Over 1.5 goals scored
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 1.5 goals scored
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $6K
Over 2.5 goals scored66%Not listed66%65¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 3 min ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)Over 2.5 goals scored66%Kalshi 66%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Over 2.5 goals scored
66%
Not listed
66%
65¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Over 2.5 goals scored
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 2.5 goals scored
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $150
Over 3.5 goals scored45%Not listed45%44¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 3 min ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Over 3.5 goals scored45%Kalshi 45%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Over 3.5 goals scored
45%
Not listed
45%
44¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Over 3.5 goals scored
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 3.5 goals scored
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $253
Heracles Almelo40.5%40.5%40¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed41¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Heracles Almelo40.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Heracles Almelo
40.5%
40.5%
40¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
41¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Heracles Almelo
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Heracles Almelo
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $723
NAC Breda33.5%33.5%33¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed34¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $294 (2.94x)NAC Breda33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
NAC Breda
33.5%
33.5%
33¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
34¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
NAC Breda
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- NAC Breda
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $274
Over 4.5 goals scored26%Not listed26%24¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 3 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Over 4.5 goals scored26%Kalshi 26%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Over 4.5 goals scored
26%
Not listed
26%
24¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Over 4.5 goals scored
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 4.5 goals scored
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $36
NAC BredaPolymarket: “Draw (NAC Breda vs. Heracles Almelo)”25.5%25.5%25¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)NAC Breda25.5%Polymarket 25.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
NAC Breda
Polymarket: “Draw (NAC Breda vs. Heracles Almelo)”
25.5%
25.5%
25¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
NAC Breda
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Draw (NAC Breda vs. Heracles Almelo)
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $167
Over 5.5 goals scored13%Not listed13%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Over 5.5 goals scored13%Kalshi 13%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Over 5.5 goals scored
13%
Not listed
13%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Over 5.5 goals scored
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 5.5 goals scored
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: keukenkampioendivisie.nl
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Over 0.5 goals scored
- Over 1.5 goals scored
- Over 2.5 goals scored
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Over 0.5 goals scored for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "NAC Breda vs. Heracles Almelo". Over 0.5 goals scored leads at 96%. Next is Over 1.5 goals scored at 86%. $7K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.
This event is for the upcoming Netherlands Eerste Divisie game, scheduled for Friday, October 23, 2026 between NAC Breda and Heracles Almelo.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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