The Prediction Markets

Nagasaki Velca vs Shiga Lakestars

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 98.5%

Next is Shiga Lakestars at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
98.5%
Polymarket 98.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shiga Lakestars
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shiga Lakestars
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nagasaki Velca
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nagasaki Velca
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bleague.jp
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sofascore, Flashscore

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes
  • Shiga Lakestars
  • Nagasaki Velca

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Yes for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nagasaki Velca vs Shiga Lakestars". Yes leads at 98.5%. Next is Shiga Lakestars at 98%. $10K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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