The Prediction Markets

Nasarawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner

Closes
Feb 7, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Aliyu Wadada Ahmed 73.5%

Next is Emmanuel David Ombugadu at 17.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Aliyu Wadada Ahmed 73.5%Emmanuel David Ombugadu 17.9%Mohammed Abubakar Adamu 5.2%Gbefwi Gaza Jonathan 3.2%Nuhu Angbazo 0.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Aliyu Wadada Ahmed
73.5%
Polymarket 72%(73.5% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliyu Wadada Ahmed
Last price
72%
Fair, margin removed
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Emmanuel David Ombugadu
17.9%
Polymarket 17.6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 19.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $521 (5.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emmanuel David Ombugadu
Last price
17.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.2¢
Sell Yes
15.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$521 (5.21x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Mohammed Abubakar Adamu
5.2%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammed Abubakar Adamu
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Polymarket
Gbefwi Gaza Jonathan
3.2%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gbefwi Gaza Jonathan
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$322
Trade this on Polymarket
Nuhu Angbazo
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nuhu Angbazo
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Aliyu Wadada Ahmed
  • Emmanuel David Ombugadu
  • Mohammed Abubakar Adamu

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nasarawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner". Aliyu Wadada Ahmed leads at 73.5%. Next is Emmanuel David Ombugadu at 17.9%. $17K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nasarawa State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nasarawa State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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