Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Kyle Larson 22%
Next is Christopher Bell at 19%. The venues differ most on Joey Logano (Polymarket 6.3%, Kalshi 4%), a 2.3-point gap.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Kyle Larson22%27.9%21.9% fair26.5¢ bid, 29.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago29%22% fair27¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, just now29.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $342 (3.42x)Kyle Larson22%Polymarket 27.9%(21.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%(22% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 29.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $342 (3.42x)
Kyle Larson
22%
27.9%
21.9% fair
26.5¢ bid, 29.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
29%
22% fair
27¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, just now
29.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $342 (3.42x)
Kyle Larson
22%
Polymarket 27.9%(21.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%(22% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 29.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $342 (3.42x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kyle Larson
- Last price
- 27.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 21.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 26.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $342 (3.42x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Larson
- Last price
- 29%
- Fair, margin removed
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $490K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 27¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29.2¢.
Christopher Bell19%24.4%19.2% fair22.2¢ bid, 26.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago25%18.9% fair23¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, just now25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Christopher Bell19%Polymarket 24.4%(19.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%(18.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Christopher Bell
19%
24.4%
19.2% fair
22.2¢ bid, 26.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
25%
18.9% fair
23¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, just now
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Christopher Bell
19%
Polymarket 24.4%(19.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%(18.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Christopher Bell
- Last price
- 24.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 19.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 22.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $377 (3.77x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Christopher Bell
- Last price
- 25%
- Fair, margin removed
- 18.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $347K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.
Denny Hamlin13.4%16%12.6% fair15¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 1 min ago18%13.6% fair17¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, just now17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Denny Hamlin13.4%Polymarket 16%(12.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%(13.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Denny Hamlin
13.4%
16%
12.6% fair
15¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
18%
13.6% fair
17¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, just now
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Denny Hamlin
13.4%
Polymarket 16%(12.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%(13.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Denny Hamlin
- Last price
- 16%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $25K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denny Hamlin
- Last price
- 18%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $701K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.
Chase Briscoe10%13.4%10.5% fair11.9¢ bid, 14.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13%9.8% fair13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, just now14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Chase Briscoe10%Polymarket 13.4%(10.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%(9.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Chase Briscoe
10%
13.4%
10.5% fair
11.9¢ bid, 14.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13%
9.8% fair
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, just now
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Chase Briscoe
10%
Polymarket 13.4%(10.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%(9.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chase Briscoe
- Last price
- 13.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $676 (6.76x)
- Volume
- $840
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chase Briscoe
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $326K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14.8¢.
Ryan Blaney9.3%12.5%9.8% fair11.1¢ bid, 13.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago12%9.1% fair10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Ryan Blaney9.3%Polymarket 12.5%(9.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%(9.1% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Ryan Blaney
9.3%
12.5%
9.8% fair
11.1¢ bid, 13.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
12%
9.1% fair
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Ryan Blaney
9.3%
Polymarket 12.5%(9.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%(9.1% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ryan Blaney
- Last price
- 12.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $725 (7.25x)
- Volume
- $12K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Blaney
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $444K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.
Joey Logano3.5%6.3%5% fair4¢ bid, 8.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4%3% fair4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Joey Logano3.5%Polymarket 6.3%(5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%(3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Joey Logano
3.5%
6.3%
5% fair
4¢ bid, 8.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4%
3% fair
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Joey Logano
3.5%
Polymarket 6.3%(5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%(3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Joey Logano
- Last price
- 6.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,163 (11.6x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joey Logano
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $390K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.
Tyler Reddick2.2%2.8%2.2% fair0.6¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3%2.3% fair3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Tyler Reddick2.2%Polymarket 2.8%(2.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Tyler Reddick
2.2%
2.8%
2.2% fair
0.6¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3%
2.3% fair
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Tyler Reddick
2.2%
Polymarket 2.8%(2.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tyler Reddick
- Last price
- 2.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $7K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tyler Reddick
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $561K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.9¢.
Bubba Wallace0.9%2%0.3¢ bid, 3.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Bubba Wallace0.9%Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bubba Wallace
0.9%
2%
0.3¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bubba Wallace
0.9%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bubba Wallace
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,778 (27.8x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bubba Wallace
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $233K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Carson Hocevar0.8%1.2%0.3¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carson Hocevar0.8%Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carson Hocevar
0.8%
1.2%
0.3¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carson Hocevar
0.8%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Carson Hocevar
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carson Hocevar
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $308K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
AJ Allmendinger0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)AJ Allmendinger0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
AJ Allmendinger
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
AJ Allmendinger
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AJ Allmendinger
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 25 more outcomesHide 25 outcomes
Alex Bowman0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Alex Bowman0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alex Bowman
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alex Bowman
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Bowman
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $55K
Austin Dillon0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Austin Dillon0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austin Dillon
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austin Dillon
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Dillon
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $62K
Brad Keselowski0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Brad Keselowski0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brad Keselowski
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brad Keselowski
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brad Keselowski
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $89K
Cody Ware0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cody Ware0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cody Ware
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cody Ware
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cody Ware
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Cole Custer0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cole Custer0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cole Custer
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cole Custer
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cole Custer
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $61K
Connor Zilisch0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Connor Zilisch0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Connor Zilisch
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Connor Zilisch
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connor Zilisch
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $49K
Erik Jones0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Erik Jones0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Erik Jones
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Erik Jones
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Erik Jones
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $31K
John Hunter Nemechek0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)John Hunter Nemechek0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
John Hunter Nemechek
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
John Hunter Nemechek
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Hunter Nemechek
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $14K
Josh Berry0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Josh Berry0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Josh Berry
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Josh Berry
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Berry
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $50K
Michael McDowell0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michael McDowell0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michael McDowell
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michael McDowell
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michael McDowell
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $447
Chase Elliott0.7%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Chase Elliott0.7%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Chase Elliott
0.7%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Chase Elliott
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chase Elliott
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $457
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chase Elliott
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $302K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Ty Gibbs0.7%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ty Gibbs0.7%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ty Gibbs
0.7%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ty Gibbs
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ty Gibbs
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $711
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ty Gibbs
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $253K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
William Byron0.7%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)William Byron0.7%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
William Byron
0.7%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
William Byron
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- William Byron
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $517
Kalshi
- Contract
- William Byron
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $261K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Noah Gragson0.7%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Noah Gragson0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Noah Gragson
0.7%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Noah Gragson
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Gragson
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $293
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.0.7%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ricky Stenhouse Jr.0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
0.7%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $27K
Riley Herbst0.7%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Riley Herbst0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Riley Herbst
0.7%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Riley Herbst
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Riley Herbst
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $611
Ross Chastain0.7%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ross Chastain0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ross Chastain
0.7%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ross Chastain
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ross Chastain
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $102K
Shane Van Gisbergen0.7%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Shane Van Gisbergen0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Shane Van Gisbergen
0.7%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Shane Van Gisbergen
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shane Van Gisbergen
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $11K
Todd Gilliland0.7%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Todd Gilliland0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Todd Gilliland
0.7%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Todd Gilliland
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Todd Gilliland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $70
Ty Dillon0.7%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ty Dillon0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ty Dillon
0.7%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ty Dillon
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ty Dillon
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Zane Smith0.7%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Zane Smith0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Zane Smith
0.7%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Zane Smith
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zane Smith
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $28K
Austin Cindric0.6%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Austin Cindric0.6%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Austin Cindric
0.6%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Austin Cindric
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Austin Cindric
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $595
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Cindric
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $67K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Chris Buescher0.6%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Chris Buescher0.6%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Chris Buescher
0.6%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Chris Buescher
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chris Buescher
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $419
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris Buescher
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $122K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Daniel Suarez0.6%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Daniel Suarez0.6%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Daniel Suarez
0.6%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Daniel Suarez
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Daniel Suarez
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $416
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniel Suarez
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $53K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Ryan Preece0.6%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Ryan Preece0.6%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ryan Preece
0.6%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ryan Preece
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ryan Preece
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $527
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Preece
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $57K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads
Mostly the same bet: 5 differences
Where they differ
- Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
- Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
- Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
- Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
- Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, the Governing League
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
- Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
- Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
- Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
- Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Kyle Larson
- Christopher Bell
- Denny Hamlin
Live prices for Kyle Larson
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion". Kyle Larson leads at 22%. Next is Christopher Bell at 19%. $5.6M has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by NASCAR to determine the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on the rules of NASCAR (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASCAR.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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