The Prediction Markets

NASCAR Cup Series Champion

Closes
Nov 15, 2026, in 23 days
Traded
$5.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Kyle Larson 22.1%

Next is Christopher Bell at 19.1%. The venues differ most on Denny Hamlin (Polymarket 16%, Kalshi 18%), a 2.0-point gap.

Kyle Larson 22.1%Christopher Bell 19.1%Denny Hamlin 13.4%Chase Briscoe 10%Ryan Blaney 9.3%30 others 26.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kyle Larson
22.1%
Polymarket 28.3%(22.3% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 29%(22% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 29.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $341 (3.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyle Larson
Last price
28.3%
Fair, margin removed
22.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29.3¢
Sell Yes
27.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$341 (3.41x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kyle Larson
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$490K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29.3¢.

Christopher Bell
19.1%
Polymarket 24.7%(19.5% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 25%(18.9% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Bell
Last price
24.7%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28.1¢
Sell Yes
21.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$356 (3.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Bell
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
18.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$347K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

Denny Hamlin
13.4%
Polymarket 16%(12.7% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 18%(13.6% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denny Hamlin
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
12.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denny Hamlin
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$701K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Chase Briscoe
10%
Polymarket 13.2%(10.4% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 13%(9.8% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chase Briscoe
Last price
13.2%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
11.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$840
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chase Briscoe
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$326K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14.4¢.

Ryan Blaney
9.3%
Polymarket 12.6%(10% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 12%(9.1% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Blaney
Last price
12.6%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
11.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Blaney
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$444K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Joey Logano
3.3%
Polymarket 5.3%(4.2% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 4%(3% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joey Logano
Last price
5.3%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Logano
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$390K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Tyler Reddick
2.2%
Polymarket 2.7%(2.1% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Reddick
Last price
2.7%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Reddick
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$561K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.8¢.

Bubba Wallace
0.9%
Polymarket 2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bubba Wallace
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bubba Wallace
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$233K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Carson Hocevar
0.8%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carson Hocevar
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Hocevar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$308K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

AJ Allmendinger
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
AJ Allmendinger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Alex Bowman
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Bowman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Dillon
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Dillon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Keselowski
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Keselowski
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cody Ware
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cody Ware
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cole Custer
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cole Custer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Kalshi
Connor Zilisch
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Zilisch
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
Erik Jones
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erik Jones
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Hunter Nemechek
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Hunter Nemechek
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Berry
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Berry
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael McDowell
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael McDowell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah Gragson
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Gragson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ty Gibbs
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ty Gibbs
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Gibbs
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$253K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Riley Herbst
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riley Herbst
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross Chastain
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross Chastain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shane Van Gisbergen
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shane Van Gisbergen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Todd Gilliland
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Gilliland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Ty Dillon
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Dillon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zane Smith
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zane Smith
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Cindric
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Austin Cindric
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Cindric
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Chase Elliott
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chase Elliott
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$457
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chase Elliott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$302K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Chris Buescher
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Buescher
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Buescher
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$122K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Daniel Suarez
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Suarez
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Suarez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ryan Preece
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Preece
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Preece
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

William Byron
0.6%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
William Byron
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
William Byron
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$261K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kyle Larson
  • Christopher Bell
  • Denny Hamlin

Live prices for Kyle Larson

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR Cup Series Champion". Kyle Larson leads at 22.1%. Next is Christopher Bell at 19.1%. $5.6M has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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