The Prediction Markets

NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion (2026)

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, in 16 days
Traded
$6.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Kaden Honeycutt 54%

Next is Jesse Love at 52.6%. The venues differ most on Carson Kvapil (Polymarket 5%, Kalshi 1%), a 4.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kaden Honeycutt
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaden Honeycutt
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse Love
52.6%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Love
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
60.2¢
Sell Yes
42.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$166 (1.66x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Love
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 50¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 60.2¢.

Justin Allgaier
32.6%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Allgaier
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Allgaier
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Kyle Larson
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyle Larson
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$490K
Trade this on Kalshi
Layne Riggs
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Layne Riggs
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Bell
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Bell
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$347K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denny Hamlin
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denny Hamlin
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$701K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chase Briscoe
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chase Briscoe
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$326K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Blaney
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Blaney
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$444K
Trade this on Kalshi
Corey Day
8.7%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Corey Day
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Corey Day
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.7¢.

Show 95 more outcomes
Chandler Smith
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chandler Smith
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Mayer
4.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Mayer
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Mayer
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Joey Logano
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Logano
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$390K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sheldon Creed
3.5%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sheldon Creed
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sheldon Creed
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Tyler Reddick
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Reddick
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$561K
Trade this on Kalshi
Carson Kvapil
2%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carson Kvapil
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Kvapil
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Grant Enfinger
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grant Enfinger
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Hill
1.9%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Austin Hill
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Hill
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Taylor Gray
1.9%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Gray
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Gray
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Parker Retzlaff
1.8%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Retzlaff
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Parker Retzlaff
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Giovanni Ruggiero
1.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giovanni Ruggiero
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Giovanni Ruggiero
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Jones
1.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon Jones
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Jones
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sammy Smith
1.2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sammy Smith
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sammy Smith
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Rajah Caruth
1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rajah Caruth
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rajah Caruth
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Adam Andretti
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Andretti
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
AJ Allmendinger
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
AJ Allmendinger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Bowman
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Bowman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andres Perez De Lara
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andres Perez De Lara
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony Alfredo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Alfredo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Cindric
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Cindric
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Dillon
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Dillon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Green
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Green
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ben Rhodes
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Rhodes
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Blaine Perkins
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blaine Perkins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Keselowski
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Keselowski
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brenden Queen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brenden Queen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brennan Poole
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brennan Poole
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Brent Crews
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brent Crews
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bubba Wallace
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bubba Wallace
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$233K
Trade this on Kalshi
Caleb Costner
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Costner
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Kalshi
Chad Finchum
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chad Finchum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Chase Elliott
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chase Elliott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$302K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Buescher
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Buescher
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$122K
Trade this on Kalshi
Christian Eckes
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Eckes
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Clayton Green
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clayton Green
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cody Ware
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cody Ware
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cody Ware
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Cole Butcher
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cole Butcher
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cole Custer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cole Custer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Kalshi
Connor Zilisch
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Zilisch
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
Corey Heim
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corey Heim
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Dye
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Dye
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$747
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Hemric
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Hemric
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Suarez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Suarez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dawson Cram
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dawson Cram
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Dawson Sutton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dawson Sutton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$548
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean Thompson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean Thompson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Erik Jones
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erik Jones
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankie Muniz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankie Muniz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Smithley
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Smithley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Kalshi
Harrison Burton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harrison Burton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jake Garcia
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Garcia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$766
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeb Burton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeb Burton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Clements
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Clements
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Joey Gase
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Gase
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
John Hunter Nemechek
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Hunter Nemechek
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Hunter Nemechek
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
John H. Nemechek
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Berry
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Berry
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Bilicki
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Bilicki
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Reaume
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Reaume
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Williams
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Williams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Haley
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Haley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin S Carroll
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin S Carroll
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Kalshi
Kris Wright
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kris Wright
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Kyle Sieg
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyle Sieg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Lavar Scott
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lavar Scott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Fenhaus
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Fenhaus
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Kalshi
Mason Maggio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mason Maggio
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael McDowell
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael McDowell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
Mini Tyrrell
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mini Tyrrell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicholas Sanchez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicholas Sanchez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nick Leitz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nick Leitz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah Gragson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Gragson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Staropoli
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Staropoli
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricky Stenhouse
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricky Stenhouse
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Riley Herbst
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riley Herbst
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Ellis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Ellis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Preece
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Preece
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Sieg
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Sieg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shane Van Gisbergen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shane Van Gisbergen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spencer Boyd
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spencer Boyd
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Stewart Friesen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stewart Friesen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Gray
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tanner Gray
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Todd Gilliland
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Gilliland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Ty Dillon
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Dillon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Dillon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ty Gibbs
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Gibbs
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$253K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ty Majeski
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Majeski
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyler Ankrum
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Ankrum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyler Reif
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Reif
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyler Tomassi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Tomassi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
William Byron
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Byron
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$261K
Trade this on Kalshi
William Sawalich
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Sawalich
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zane Smith
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zane Smith
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Carson Hocevar
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Hocevar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$308K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Hocevar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross Chastain
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross Chastain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ross Chastain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: nascar.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kaden Honeycutt
  • Jesse Love
  • Justin Allgaier

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Kaden Honeycutt for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion (2026)". Kaden Honeycutt leads at 54%. Next is Jesse Love at 52.6%. $6.0M has traded across 105 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the driver who wins the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series (Xfinity Series) championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series (Xfinity Series) championship (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series (Xfinity Series) season is cancelled, postponed after November 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no champion crowned within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from NASCAR (https://www.nascar.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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