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What the markets expect
Justin Allgaier 56%
Next is Corey Day at 49%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Justin Allgaier56%56%38¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 43s ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Justin Allgaier56%Kalshi 56%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Justin Allgaier
56%
56%
38¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Justin Allgaier
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Justin Allgaier
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $17
Corey Day49%49%33¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 43s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Corey Day49%Kalshi 49%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Corey Day
49%
49%
33¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Corey Day
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Corey Day
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $49
Austin Hill47%47%45¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 43s ago60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Austin Hill47%Kalshi 47%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Austin Hill
47%
47%
45¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Austin Hill
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Hill
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $309
Sheldon Creed45%45%41¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 43s ago54¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Sheldon Creed45%Kalshi 45%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Sheldon Creed
45%
45%
41¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
54¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Sheldon Creed
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sheldon Creed
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $200
Jesse Love43%43%33¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 43s ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)Jesse Love43%Kalshi 43%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Jesse Love
43%
43%
33¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Jesse Love
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jesse Love
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
Rajah Caruth43%43%39¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 43s ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Rajah Caruth43%Kalshi 43%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Rajah Caruth
43%
43%
39¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Rajah Caruth
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rajah Caruth
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $202
Carson Kvapil41%41%31¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 43s ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Carson Kvapil41%Kalshi 41%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Carson Kvapil
41%
41%
31¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Carson Kvapil
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carson Kvapil
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
Sam Mayer41%41%30¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 43s ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Sam Mayer41%Kalshi 41%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Sam Mayer
41%
41%
30¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Sam Mayer
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sam Mayer
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $249
Brent Crews37.5%37.5%30¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 43s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Brent Crews37.5%Kalshi 37.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Brent Crews
37.5%
37.5%
30¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Brent Crews
37.5%
Kalshi 37.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brent Crews
- Last price
- 37.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Harrison Burton37%37%17¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 43s ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Harrison Burton37%Kalshi 37%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Harrison Burton
37%
37%
17¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Harrison Burton
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Harrison Burton
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $3
Show 31 more outcomesHide 31 outcomes
Ryan Sieg37%37%25¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 43s ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Ryan Sieg37%Kalshi 37%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Ryan Sieg
37%
37%
25¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Ryan Sieg
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Sieg
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $26
Sammy Smith36.5%36.5%29¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 43s ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Sammy Smith36.5%Kalshi 36.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Sammy Smith
36.5%
36.5%
29¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Sammy Smith
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sammy Smith
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
Anthony Alfredo34%34%20¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 43s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Anthony Alfredo34%Kalshi 34%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Anthony Alfredo
34%
34%
20¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Anthony Alfredo
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anthony Alfredo
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $1
Taylor Gray34%34%27¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 43s ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Taylor Gray34%Kalshi 34%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Taylor Gray
34%
34%
27¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Taylor Gray
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Gray
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
William Sawalich33%33%27¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 43s ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)William Sawalich33%Kalshi 33%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
William Sawalich
33%
33%
27¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
William Sawalich
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- William Sawalich
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Brandon Jones32.5%32.5%26¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 43s ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Brandon Jones32.5%Kalshi 32.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Brandon Jones
32.5%
32.5%
26¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Brandon Jones
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brandon Jones
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Jeb Burton29%29%19¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 43s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Jeb Burton29%Kalshi 29%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Jeb Burton
29%
29%
19¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Jeb Burton
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeb Burton
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $84
Parker Retzlaff28%28%23¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 43s ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Parker Retzlaff28%Kalshi 28%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Parker Retzlaff
28%
28%
23¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Parker Retzlaff
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Parker Retzlaff
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
Dean Thompson25%25%16¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 43s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Dean Thompson25%Kalshi 25%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Dean Thompson
25%
25%
16¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Dean Thompson
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dean Thompson
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $256
Jake Finch22%22%16¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 43s ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Jake Finch22%Kalshi 22%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Jake Finch
22%
22%
16¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Jake Finch
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jake Finch
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
Brennan Poole22%22%13¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 43s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Brennan Poole22%Kalshi 22%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Brennan Poole
22%
22%
13¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Brennan Poole
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brennan Poole
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $73
Jeremy Clements21.5%21.5%16¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 43s ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Jeremy Clements21.5%Kalshi 21.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Jeremy Clements
21.5%
21.5%
16¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Jeremy Clements
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeremy Clements
- Last price
- 21.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
Josh Williams16%16%12¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 43s ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Josh Williams16%Kalshi 16%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Josh Williams
16%
16%
12¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Josh Williams
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Williams
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Connor Mosack15%15%11¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 43s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Connor Mosack15%Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Connor Mosack
15%
15%
11¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Connor Mosack
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connor Mosack
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
Daniel Dye15%15%5¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 43s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Daniel Dye15%Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Daniel Dye
15%
15%
5¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Daniel Dye
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniel Dye
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
Lee Pulliam15%15%5¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 43s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Lee Pulliam15%Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Lee Pulliam
15%
15%
5¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Lee Pulliam
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lee Pulliam
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
Leland Honeyman Jr15%15%5¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 43s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Leland Honeyman Jr15%Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Leland Honeyman Jr
15%
15%
5¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Leland Honeyman Jr
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Leland Honeyman Jr
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
Blaine Perkins14.5%14.5%8¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 43s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Blaine Perkins14.5%Kalshi 14.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Blaine Perkins
14.5%
14.5%
8¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Blaine Perkins
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Blaine Perkins
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
Mason Maggio13%13%6¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 43s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Mason Maggio13%Kalshi 13%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Mason Maggio
13%
13%
6¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Mason Maggio
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mason Maggio
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $200
Nick Leitz12%12%6¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 43s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Nick Leitz12%Kalshi 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Nick Leitz
12%
12%
6¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Nick Leitz
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nick Leitz
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $239
Patrick Emerling12%12%6¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 43s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Patrick Emerling12%Kalshi 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Patrick Emerling
12%
12%
6¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Patrick Emerling
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Emerling
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $109
Patrick Staropoli11.5%11.5%6¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 43s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Patrick Staropoli11.5%Kalshi 11.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Patrick Staropoli
11.5%
11.5%
6¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Patrick Staropoli
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Staropoli
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Ryan Ellis11%11%6¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 43s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Ryan Ellis11%Kalshi 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Ryan Ellis
11%
11%
6¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Ryan Ellis
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Ellis
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $39
Kyle Sieg10.5%10.5%6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 43s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Kyle Sieg10.5%Kalshi 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kyle Sieg
10.5%
10.5%
6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kyle Sieg
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Sieg
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 109.5%9.5%5¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 43s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 109.5%Kalshi 9.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 10
9.5%
9.5%
5¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 10
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 10
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Josh Bilicki9%9%7¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 43s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Josh Bilicki9%Kalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Josh Bilicki
9%
9%
7¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Josh Bilicki
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Bilicki
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Joey Gase7.5%7.5%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 43s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Joey Gase7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Joey Gase
7.5%
7.5%
5¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Joey Gase
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joey Gase
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Lavar Scott7.5%7.5%4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 43s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Lavar Scott7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Lavar Scott
7.5%
7.5%
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Lavar Scott
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lavar Scott
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Caesar Bacarella6.5%6.5%3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 43s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Caesar Bacarella6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Caesar Bacarella
6.5%
6.5%
3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Caesar Bacarella
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Caesar Bacarella
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Garrett Smithley6.5%6.5%3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 43s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Garrett Smithley6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Garrett Smithley
6.5%
6.5%
3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Garrett Smithley
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Garrett Smithley
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Carson Ware5%5%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 43s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Carson Ware5%Kalshi 5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Carson Ware
5%
5%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Carson Ware
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carson Ware
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Justin Allgaier
- Corey Day
- Austin Hill
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR The Progress Group 250: Top 10 Finishers". Justin Allgaier leads at 56%. Next is Corey Day at 49%. $3K has traded across 41 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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