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What the markets expect
Austin Hill 38%
Next is Justin Allgaier at 26%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Austin Hill38%38%23¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 31s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Austin Hill38%Kalshi 38%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Austin Hill
38%
38%
23¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Austin Hill
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Hill
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $391
Justin Allgaier26%26%25¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 31s ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Justin Allgaier26%Kalshi 26%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Justin Allgaier
26%
26%
25¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Justin Allgaier
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Justin Allgaier
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $16
Jesse Love25%25%14¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 31s ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Jesse Love25%Kalshi 25%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Jesse Love
25%
25%
14¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Jesse Love
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jesse Love
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 324.5%24.5%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 31s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 324.5%Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 3
24.5%
24.5%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 3
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 3
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Daniel Dye24.5%24.5%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 31s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Daniel Dye24.5%Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Daniel Dye
24.5%
24.5%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Daniel Dye
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniel Dye
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Garrett Smithley24.5%24.5%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 31s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Garrett Smithley24.5%Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Garrett Smithley
24.5%
24.5%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Garrett Smithley
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Garrett Smithley
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Leland Honeyman Jr24.5%24.5%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 31s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Leland Honeyman Jr24.5%Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Leland Honeyman Jr
24.5%
24.5%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Leland Honeyman Jr
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Leland Honeyman Jr
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Patrick Emerling24.5%24.5%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 31s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Patrick Emerling24.5%Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Patrick Emerling
24.5%
24.5%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Patrick Emerling
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Emerling
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Sam Mayer23%23%8¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 31s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Sam Mayer23%Kalshi 23%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Sam Mayer
23%
23%
8¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Sam Mayer
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sam Mayer
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $21
Sheldon Creed22%22%12¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 31s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Sheldon Creed22%Kalshi 22%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Sheldon Creed
22%
22%
12¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Sheldon Creed
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sheldon Creed
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $125
Show 31 more outcomesHide 31 outcomes
Carson Kvapil14%14%8¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 31s ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Carson Kvapil14%Kalshi 14%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Carson Kvapil
14%
14%
8¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Carson Kvapil
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carson Kvapil
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Corey Day13%13%9¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 31s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Corey Day13%Kalshi 13%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Corey Day
13%
13%
9¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Corey Day
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Corey Day
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Brent Crews12%12%8¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 31s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Brent Crews12%Kalshi 12%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Brent Crews
12%
12%
8¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Brent Crews
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brent Crews
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Ryan Sieg12%12%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 31s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Ryan Sieg12%Kalshi 12%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Ryan Sieg
12%
12%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Ryan Sieg
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Sieg
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $26
Sammy Smith11%11%7¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 31s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Sammy Smith11%Kalshi 11%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Sammy Smith
11%
11%
7¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Sammy Smith
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sammy Smith
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Rajah Caruth10%10%10¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 31s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Rajah Caruth10%Kalshi 10%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Rajah Caruth
10%
10%
10¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Rajah Caruth
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rajah Caruth
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $165
William Sawalich9%9%5¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 31s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)William Sawalich9%Kalshi 9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
William Sawalich
9%
9%
5¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
William Sawalich
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- William Sawalich
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Jeremy Clements8.5%8.5%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 31s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Jeremy Clements8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Jeremy Clements
8.5%
8.5%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Jeremy Clements
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeremy Clements
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Jeb Burton8%8%1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 31s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Jeb Burton8%Kalshi 8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Jeb Burton
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Jeb Burton
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeb Burton
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $29
Parker Retzlaff8%8%5¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 31s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Parker Retzlaff8%Kalshi 8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Parker Retzlaff
8%
8%
5¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Parker Retzlaff
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Parker Retzlaff
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $246
Anthony Alfredo7%7%7¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 31s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Anthony Alfredo7%Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Anthony Alfredo
7%
7%
7¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Anthony Alfredo
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anthony Alfredo
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Brandon Jones7%7%5¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 31s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Brandon Jones7%Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Brandon Jones
7%
7%
5¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Brandon Jones
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brandon Jones
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Kyle Sieg7%7%— bid, 14¢ askpolled, 31s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Kyle Sieg7%Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kyle Sieg
7%
7%
— bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kyle Sieg
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Sieg
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Taylor Gray7%7%6¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 31s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Taylor Gray7%Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Taylor Gray
7%
7%
6¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Taylor Gray
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Gray
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Harrison Burton6%6%3¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 31s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Harrison Burton6%Kalshi 6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Harrison Burton
6%
6%
3¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Harrison Burton
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Harrison Burton
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Blaine Perkins5.5%5.5%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, 31s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Blaine Perkins5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Blaine Perkins
5.5%
5.5%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Blaine Perkins
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Blaine Perkins
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Josh Bilicki5%5%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 31s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Josh Bilicki5%Kalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Josh Bilicki
5%
5%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Josh Bilicki
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Bilicki
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Joey Gase4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 31s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Joey Gase4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Joey Gase
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Joey Gase
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joey Gase
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Josh Williams4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 31s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Josh Williams4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Josh Williams
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Josh Williams
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Williams
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Ryan Ellis4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 31s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Ryan Ellis4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Ryan Ellis
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Ryan Ellis
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Ellis
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Brennan Poole1%1%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 31s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Brennan Poole1%Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Brennan Poole
1%
1%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Brennan Poole
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brennan Poole
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Connor Mosack1%1%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 31s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Connor Mosack1%Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Connor Mosack
1%
1%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Connor Mosack
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connor Mosack
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Dean Thompson1%1%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 31s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Dean Thompson1%Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Dean Thompson
1%
1%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Dean Thompson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dean Thompson
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Jake Finch1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 31s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jake Finch1%Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jake Finch
1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jake Finch
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jake Finch
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Lee Pulliam1%1%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 31s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Lee Pulliam1%Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Lee Pulliam
1%
1%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Lee Pulliam
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lee Pulliam
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Mason Maggio1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 31s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mason Maggio1%Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mason Maggio
1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mason Maggio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mason Maggio
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Patrick Staropoli1%1%— bid, 16¢ askpolled, 31s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Patrick Staropoli1%Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Patrick Staropoli
1%
1%
— bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Patrick Staropoli
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Staropoli
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Caesar Bacarella0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Caesar Bacarella0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Caesar Bacarella
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Caesar Bacarella
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Caesar Bacarella
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Carson Ware0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carson Ware0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carson Ware
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carson Ware
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carson Ware
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Lavar Scott0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Lavar Scott0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lavar Scott
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lavar Scott
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lavar Scott
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Nick Leitz0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 31s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Nick Leitz0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nick Leitz
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 31s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nick Leitz
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nick Leitz
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Austin Hill
- Justin Allgaier
- Jesse Love
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR The Progress Group 250: Top 3 Finishers". Austin Hill leads at 38%. Next is Justin Allgaier at 26%. $1K has traded across 41 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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