The Prediction Markets

NASDAQ-100 price at year-end?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$55K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

26,000 or above 82%

Next is 27,000 or above at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
26,000 or above
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
26,000 or above
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
27,000 or above
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
27,000 or above
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
28,000 or above
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
28,000 or above
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
29,000 or above
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
29,000 or above
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
30,000 or above
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
30,000 or above
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
31,000 or above
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
31,000 or above
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
32,000 or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
32,000 or above
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
33,000 or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
33,000 or above
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
36,000 or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
36,000 or above
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$845
Trade this on Kalshi
34,000 or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
34,000 or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
38,000 or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
38,000 or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
39,000 or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
39,000 or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
35,000 or above
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
35,000 or above
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$825
Trade this on Kalshi
37,000 or above
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
37,000 or above
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Kalshi
41,000 or above
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
41,000 or above
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
40,000 or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
40,000 or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Kalshi
42,000 or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
42,000 or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$487
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Google Finance

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 26,000 or above
  • 27,000 or above
  • 28,000 or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NASDAQ-100 price at year-end?". 26,000 or above leads at 82%. Next is 27,000 or above at 77%. $55K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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