The Prediction Markets

National Book Award for Fiction

Closes
Nov 18, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Tie 48%

Next is Mad Eden at 46%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Tie
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mad Eden
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mad Eden
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Beginning Middle End
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beginning Middle End
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dèy
41.5%
Kalshi 41.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dèy
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Paradiso 17
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paradiso 17
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Passengers
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Passengers
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Python’s Kiss
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Python’s Kiss
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Red Ants
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Red Ants
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
The Disappearers
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Disappearers
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Renovation
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Renovation
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Book Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tie
  • Mad Eden
  • Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "National Book Award for Fiction". Tie leads at 48%. Next is Mad Eden at 46%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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